When uncertainty makes decisions easier, not harder

We tend to treat uncertainty as the enemy of a good decision. More data, more modelling, more deliberation – surely that is the path to a better choice. Often it is the opposite.

When the range of plausible outcomes is wide and irreducible, the rational move is to stop optimising for a single forecast and start choosing options that survive across many futures. Robustness beats precision.

This reframing turns a paralysing question (what exactly will happen?) into a tractable one (which choice do I least regret across the futures I can imagine?).